Prediction of future insulin-deficiency in glutamic acid decarboxylase autoantibody enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay-positive patients with slowly-progressive type 1 diabetes

Aims/Introduction: This study aimed to identify risk factors that contribute to the progression of slowly-progressive type 1 diabetes by evaluating the positive predictive value (PPV) of factors associated with the progression to an insulin-dependent state. Materials and Methods: We selected 60 slowly-progressive type 1 diabetes patients who tested positive for glutamic acid decarboxylase autoantibodies (GADA) at diagnosis from the Japanese Type 1 Diabetes Database Study. GADA levels in these patients were concurrently measured using both radioimmunoassay (RIA) and enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) techniques. Results: Compared with the non-progressor group (fasting C-peptide [F-CPR] levels maintained ≥0.6 ng/mL), the progressor group showed a younger age at diagnosis, lower body mass index (BMI), lower F-CPR levels and a higher prevalence of insulinoma-associated antigen-2 autoantibodies (IA-2A). The PPV of RIA-GADA increased from 56.3 to 70.0% in the high titer group (≥10 U/mL), and further increased to 76.9, 84.2, 81.0 and 75.0% when combined with specific thresholds for age at diagnosis <47 years, BMI <22.6 kg/m², F-CPR <1.41 ng/mL and IA-2A positivity, respectively. In contrast, the PPV of ELISA-GADA (71.8%) remained the same at 73.1% in the high titer group (≥180 U/mL), but increased to 81.8, 82.4 and 79.0% when evaluated in conjunction with age at diagnosis, BMI and F-CPR level, respectively. Conclusions: Our findings show that, unlike RIA-GADA, ELISA-GADA shows no association between GADA titers and the risk of progression to an insulin-dependent state. The PPV improves when age at diagnosis, BMI and F-CPR levels are considered in combination.